2024 has only just begun, but GameSpot's staff is already speculating--some might say wildly--about what to expect from the game industry this year. Sure, that could mean something as simple as a long-forgotten game franchise getting revived or another big publisher getting acquired by a console manufacturer, but it can also mean seismic shifts in how video games are made--and who makes them. We made some bold predictions for 2024, and while not all of them are optimistic, if they all happen to come true, it will be a monumentally important year for video games. Unfortunately, that could also mean far fewer people making them in 2025. Here are GameSpot's video game industry predictions for 2024.

Meta pulls the plug on Quest

Meta bet big on VR when it--then still known as Facebook--purchased Oculus VR back in 2014. Since then, however, its attempts to turn VR into a profitable arm of its business have been very unsuccessful. That hasn't stopped Meta from continuing to pour money into research and development on new products like the Quest 3 and Quest Pro, but the quarterly losses Meta's Reality Labs division racks up are staggering. In Q3 2023, revenue was down 26% and it recorded a $3.74 billion operating loss.

It seems Zuckerberg and company are caught up in the sunk-cost fallacy. Interest in VR technology hasn't disappeared, but the ceiling for the business appears to just be too low to justify investing billions of dollars a quarter in the hope that it'll eventually, somehow, start making money. I expect this year will see Meta kill off the Quest and the rest of its VR technology, perhaps in favor of game and software development for devices with wider install bases. -- Gabe Gurwin

An explosion of video game movies and TV shows

The film industry has continued to become more risk-averse over the years, moving toward a near-endless lineup of sequels and superhero films. With budgets as high as they've become, making sure your investment is profitable has become even more important, and if you don't have a hit project to milk sequels out of, what do you do? Well, you take a follow-the-leader approach, of course. In 2024, that means developing a video game movie or TV series, as The Super Mario Bros. Movie made a huge box-office impression and The Last of Us set streaming records for Max.

The Fallout series premieres this year on Prime Video and a Legend of Zelda film is in the works, but I don't think we'll see this limited to big-name franchises. Nearly every IP-holder is going to be convinced their game is big enough to get a successful adaptation, and we'll see a whole lot more greenlit--even for niche series, if the Gravity Rush movie is any indication. After the madness dies down in a few years as people realize they don't need to see another Borderlands movie or a live-action Portal, we'll likely see fewer of them, but for now, it's full steam ahead. -- Gabe Gurwin

We get a GTA 6 gameplay trailer and release date

After a stunning cinematic trailer that aired in December 2023, I'm expecting Rockstar Games to release at least one further trailer for Grand Theft Auto VI in 2024 and confirm the game's release date. Rockstar is known for its deep-dive trailers to give fans a window into what they can expect to see and do in their games, and GTA VI should be no different. I'm banking on Rockstar publishing a lengthy and impressive trailer that runs through some of the multitude of activities, events, people, places, missions, and other elements of the hugely anticipated open-world game at some point in 2024. The trailer won't give everything away, of course, as Rockstar understands the way to build hype is to keep people always wanting more so they get excited about the next beat and eventually the game's release.

Beyond another trailer, I'm expecting Rockstar to officially confirm GTA VI's release date during the year. History suggests Rockstar will delay GTA 6, but I do anticipate Rockstar will give us an initial release date this year for sometime in 2025 on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, with a PC launch to come later. -- Eddie Makuch

AI-based game development ramps up

Artificial intelligence was a major talking point in the video game industry and beyond in 2023, and I expect that to continue this year. In particular, I predict that game developers big and small either ramp up existing AI-based game development or begin the practice altogether to create or assist in the creation of new games. One of the most popular editing softwares in the world, Photoshop, already includes a built-in "generative AI" tool that allows users to enhance, refine, and spruce up their content, and this is only the beginning for how AI systems will aid creative people in video game development and the wider technology and art landscape.

I think we will see game developers come out to discuss how their application of AI technology assists humans in doing the actual work, in part to assuage concerns about it replacing people and causing jobs to be lost. I am not optimistic that game developers and publishers will be fully transparent in their messaging with respect to the use of AI, and I expect to see statements from major companies contain plenty of hedging language that attempts to downplay or misdirect the reality of the given situation. I expect some developers will proudly assert that their games are "not made with AI," while other developers will lean into the new technology. -- Eddie Makuch

Switch 2 launches this year with a new 3D Mario game

After a long period of rumors and leaks, it appears likely that this will finally be the year that we receive a successor to the Nintendo Switch. But when the new system does come, I think Nintendo won't stop at a higher frame rate or even backwards compatibility (more on that below). A new 3D Mario will be a day-one launch game for the Switch 2.

Mario is riding high on the success of his hit animated movie and Super Mario Wonder, the best 2D Mario game in decades. But it's been an unusually quiet time for 3D Mario, widely seen as one of Nintendo's most important tentpoles. It's been seven years since Super Mario Odyssey, which makes this tied for the longest stretch without a new 3D Mario since Super Mario 64. (That is, if you don't count the very good but experimental Bowser's Fury, which came packaged as an extra with the Switch port of Super Mario 3D World in 2021.)

Plus, Nintendo surely knows how important it is to start its next generation off on the right foot. The Wii U fizzled, but gamers gave the company a mulligan, and that platform was essentially treated like a prototype Switch. Now with the wind at its back, Nintendo will want to follow up one of its biggest consoles ever with a head start, and a new flagship game for its most recognizable mascot would surely fit the bill. -- Steve Watts

Switch 2 will offer backwards compatibility

Nintendo has made a tremendous amount of money by re-selling games on Switch that you might already own on older platforms. Whether it's Mario Kart 8, New Super Mario Bros. U, Pikmin, or numerous others, a not-insubstantial portion of the company's software business has revolved around the fact that Switch didn't provide any access to games you had bought in prior generations.

Despite how tantalizing that must be for Nintendo--particularly with the potential for a Switch successor to improve the performance and visuals of a game like Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, which would make re-selling the game a big success--I believe one of the key selling points of the new system will be the ability to play all of your Switch games. Whether physical games are compatible, I'm not sure, but the way Nintendo has talked about being able to leverage Nintendo Accounts in the next generation certainly suggests your digital purchases will transfer.

Not having to restart your entire library will make the decision to buy new hardware an easier decision for many people--and it's not as if Nintendo won't still have the option to release a remaster of any Switch game and have it sell extremely well. -- Chris Pereira

More layoffs

In 2023, it's estimated that nearly 9,000 game developers were laid off--a staggering 800% increase from the 1,000 approximated in 2022. From Epic and Embracer to Bungie and Ascendant, studios of all sizes were hit hard by increasing financial constraints and the repercussions of companies rapidly expanding following the game industry's growth during the height of COVID-19. As such, what we're seeing now is a painful period of "stabilization," even if I'd strongly argue that reducing what's considered acceptable profit levels and better wealth distribution is a better way to accomplish that than shuttering studios and terminating the people who actually make the games.

Regardless--and despite witnessing record level sales by some studios and multimillion dollar mergers by others--I unfortunately suspect that we will see a lot of layoffs in 2024 as well. Though business insiders have gone back and forth on whether or not the US will enter a recession this year, even if avoided, we can expect weak economic growth--and analysts are beginning to speculate that video games are not as recession-proof as previously assumed. All this, coupled with growing interest in AI as a cost-cutting tool and incredibly bleak supplement for human labor, makes for a worrisome year. It'd be great to be wrong on this one, but we'll see. -- Jessica Howard

Physical game releases will decline, worries about media preservation will increase

Though the numbers for 2023 have yet to be revealed, the Digital Entertainment and Retail Association (ERA) released some informative, albeit shocking, statistics last year. In 2022, an estimated 89.5% of all games sold in the UK were digital downloads. Additionally, data tracker NDP Game Pulse found that the number of new games available to purchase on cartridge or disc in the US dropped from 321 titles in 2018 to 226 in 2021--a 30% decrease. Heck, even Best Buy is cutting back on physical media sales and that's a good chunk of what the company is known for.

All this paired with the ever-increasing rate at which streaming services are taking over our homes, brains, the world, etc., points to one overwhelming truth: Physical media is on the decline. While I'm reluctant to say it's dying--I suspect it will go the way of vinyl rather than disappear entirely--that exclusivity is a bit frightening. Sure, less rampant consumerism and mass-produced materials ultimately ending up in landfills is great, but as we've recently seen with movies/television shows and streaming services, what happens when stuff becomes inaccessible or simply disappears?

Already, the Video Game History Foundation estimates that 87% of classic video games are critically endangered or lost, and rampant industry consolidation, constant internet connection requirements, and the gatekeeping of titles on certain platforms, consoles, and services makes keeping a hold of your favorite games extremely tough. It's fortunate that we already have a foundation looking into this and pushing for preservation, but I suspect the field of media preservation (and knowing a good site to look up emulators) will become increasingly important in the coming years. -- Jessica Howard

Even more Xbox kitchen utensils revealed in 2024

What does the future hold in store for video games in 2024? Will Sephiroth slip and accidentally stab himself instead of Aerith in Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth? Will the groundhog finally not see its shadow and confirm a Bloodborne PS5 port? All sound theories, but if there's one thing that you can add to your 2024 bingo card, it's Microsoft pushing to take over your living room and kitchen.

We've already seen Xbox-inspired fridges and toasters from the company, and there's so much more that can be done in this space. You don't see Nintendo Sieve advertised or a Sony-branded cheese GraterStation to prepare meals with, but we wouldn't be surprised if Microsoft surprise-dropped an Xbox Series Egg-beater onto store shelves. Could we see Xbox Cake Pass, a subscription-based delivery of new decadent dessert treats every month?

The answer is a definite maybe and yes it would be worth the monthly subscription cost for first-party carbs from award-winning studios. We already know that Xbox head Phil Spencer makes some pretty great pancakes, and we'd be down for some Perfect Dark chocolate pudding or StarFriand from Microsoft's various developers. -- Darryn Bonthuys